2012 Euro Cup semifinals: Italy vs. Germany, Las Vegas odds and pick

The 2012 Euro Cup is right down to a final four teams, so when Italy and Germany square off Thursday afternoon they'll be playing to handle the winner with the Spain vs. Portugal game that can place later today.
Recent history between these teams favors Italy, but Germany doesn't care about the past, they are focused on the action taking place.
The German squad have not beaten Italy in the competitive match.
"We check here can't reverse time, ignore about this, the past doesn't play a role in your planning," said German Coach Joachim Loew. "Another stat is Germany has not won against Italy in the major tournament, but so what?"
Las Vegas odds makers must feel it's time for Germany to win as they're the widely used at -135. The Over/Under number is 2.5.
This game will likely be a tough, hard fought match. My buddies are telling me that I am going the wrong manner with this match, but here it is anyways!
Pick - Italy

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